Football AI Beta - Research Preview - Statistical analyses are continuously improving.
FAFootball AI

Scottish Premiership - 2025/2026

Historical record
Motherwell crest

Motherwell

Kickoff

2026-01-24 15:00:00

VS

4 - 0

Kilmarnock crest

Kilmarnock

Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset

Intelligence overview

Home win

Medium confidence, strongest supported indicator: Over 1.5 goals.

Expected goals

Motherwell: 1.7
Kilmarnock: 0.8

Home xG / Away xG

Model

analysis-v1

sportmonks-football-501-25598-v3

Publication

historical

Public view hides drafts

56%

Confidence

Medium confidence

Review context

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Generated from verified statistical data

Detailed AI analysis is being prepared

Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.

Probability board

Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.

Home67%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Draw22%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Away11%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Over 1.580%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Over 2.543%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

BTTS60%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.

Evidence engine

Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.

Form

The model favours home win from pre-match team context.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Attack

Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Defence

Confidence is labelled medium, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Home/Away

The model favours home win from pre-match team context.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

League context

Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Schedule/rest

Confidence is labelled medium, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Market intelligence

Goals, corners and discipline signals

A separate explanation layer for match markets. These signals do not change Analysis Engine V1 and are not bookmaker odds.

Goals outlook

Active

V1 expects 2.5 total goals. Local team samples average 2.84 total goals in matches involving these sides.

Over 1.580%
Over 2.543%
BTTS60%

1X2 balance

Active

The winner market remains separated from goals markets, so a high goal signal does not automatically mean a strong home or away call.

Home67%
Draw22%
Away11%

Corners outlook

Imported

Imported historical sample suggests 8 combined team corners per match across the current market dataset.

Motherwell48%

4 avg corners

Kilmarnock48%

4 avg corners

Sample60%

6 matches max

Cards and possession

Imported

Imported discipline sample rates this matchup around 6.16 weighted cards. Possession averages are shown when available.

Cards risk100%

High/Medium risk labels

Motherwell50%

Avg possession

Kilmarnock49%

Avg possession

Risk review

Risk and uncertainty signals

Short caution signals that explain why the analysis remains measured. These do not change the V1 prediction.

Draw tendency sample

25%

Combined draw share across both team samples.

Model draw probability22%

V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.

Confidence caution

Standard

Still not a guarantee or betting recommendation.

Confidence56%

Manual publication remains required.

Historical sample context

152 matches

Current-season form will appear separately after Sportmonks current-season imports are expanded.

Historical team baseline

Longer-term profile from completed local datasets: 2024/2025, 2025/2026. Current-season signals appear separately when Sportmonks match data is available.

MotherwellMetricKilmarnock
1.45
Overall PPG
1.11
1.38
Goals for
1.25
1.3
Goals against
1.74
76
Sample
76

Motherwell form

WLDLW

PPG 1.45 - GF 105 - GA 99

Kilmarnock form

LWWWW

PPG 1.11 - GF 95 - GA 132

Motherwell win rate39%
Kilmarnock win rate29%
Draw share sample25%

Home team signal

Motherwell

WLDLW

Points profile

1.45 PPG

30W 20D 26L sample

Goals for

1.38

105 scored across local sample

Goals against

1.3

99 conceded across local sample

Win share39%
Draw share26%
Loss share34%

Away team signal

Kilmarnock

LWWWW

Points profile

1.11 PPG

22W 18D 36L sample

Goals for

1.25

95 scored across local sample

Goals against

1.74

132 conceded across local sample

Win share29%
Draw share24%
Loss share47%

Match timeline

Key match events

Goals, cards, VAR and substitutions appear only when verified Sportmonks event data exists locally.

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