Football AI Beta - Research Preview - Statistical analyses are continuously improving.
FAFootball AI

La Liga - 2025/2026

Historical record
Celta de Vigo crest

Celta de Vigo

Kickoff

2026-01-18 17:30:00

VS

3 - 0

Rayo Vallecano crest

Rayo Vallecano

Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset

Intelligence overview

Home win

Low confidence, strongest supported indicator: Over 1.5 goals.

Expected goals

Celta de Vigo: 1.4
Rayo Vallecano: 1

Home xG / Away xG

Model

analysis-v1

sportmonks-football-564-25659-v1

Publication

historical

Public view hides drafts

45%

Confidence

Medium confidence

Review context

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Generated from verified statistical data

Detailed AI analysis is being prepared

Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.

Probability board

Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.

Home50%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Draw27%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Away23%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Over 1.578%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Over 2.540%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

BTTS63%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.

Evidence engine

Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.

Form

The model favours home win from pre-match team context.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Attack

Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Defence

Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Home/Away

The model favours home win from pre-match team context.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

League context

Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Schedule/rest

Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Market intelligence

Goals, corners and discipline signals

A separate explanation layer for match markets. These signals do not change Analysis Engine V1 and are not bookmaker odds.

Goals outlook

Active

V1 expects 2.4 total goals. Local team samples average 2.45 total goals in matches involving these sides.

Over 1.578%
Over 2.540%
BTTS63%

1X2 balance

Active

The winner market remains separated from goals markets, so a high goal signal does not automatically mean a strong home or away call.

Home50%
Draw27%
Away23%

Corners outlook

Source verified

Sportmonks returned corner statistics in the access audit. Per-team corner trends are not available for this fixture yet.

Cards and possession

Source verified

Sportmonks returned yellow cards, red cards and ball-possession statistics in the access audit. Match-specific trend import is pending.

Risk review

Risk and uncertainty signals

Short caution signals that explain why the analysis remains measured. These do not change the V1 prediction.

Draw tendency sample

34%

Combined draw share across both team samples.

Model draw probability27%

V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.

Confidence caution

Standard

Still not a guarantee or betting recommendation.

Confidence45%

Manual publication remains required.

Historical sample context

76 matches

Current-season form will appear separately after Sportmonks current-season imports are expanded.

Historical team baseline

Longer-term profile from completed local datasets: 2025/2026. Current-season signals appear separately when Sportmonks match data is available.

Celta de VigoMetricRayo Vallecano
1.42
Overall PPG
1.32
1.39
Goals for
1.08
1.26
Goals against
1.16
38
Sample
38

Celta de Vigo form

WWLDW

PPG 1.42 - GF 53 - GA 48

Rayo Vallecano form

WDDWW

PPG 1.32 - GF 41 - GA 44

Celta de Vigo win rate37%
Rayo Vallecano win rate32%
Draw share sample34%

Home team signal

Celta de Vigo

WWLDW

Points profile

1.42 PPG

14W 12D 12L sample

Goals for

1.39

53 scored across local sample

Goals against

1.26

48 conceded across local sample

Win share37%
Draw share32%
Loss share32%

Away team signal

Rayo Vallecano

WDDWW

Points profile

1.32 PPG

12W 14D 12L sample

Goals for

1.08

41 scored across local sample

Goals against

1.16

44 conceded across local sample

Win share32%
Draw share37%
Loss share32%

Match timeline

Key match events

Goals, cards, VAR and substitutions appear only when verified Sportmonks event data exists locally.

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