Expected goals
1.2 - 1.7
Model estimate
Superliga · 2025/2026
Historical record
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Kickoff
2026-04-23 18:00:00
VS
1 - 2
FC Midtjylland
Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset
Intelligence overview
No clear favourite
Highest 1X2 estimate 45%. Confidence is low, so the UI avoids a strong recommendation.
Model
analysis-v1
sportmonks-football-271-25536-v1
Publication
historical
Public view hides drafts
43%
Confidence
Probability board
Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.
Home28%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Draw27%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Away45%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 1.586%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 2.552%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
BTTS73%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.
Evidence engine
Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.
Form
The model favours away win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset
Attack
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset
Defence
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset
Home/Away
The model favours away win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset
League context
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset
Schedule/rest
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset
Market intelligence
Goals, corners and discipline signals
A separate explanation layer for match markets. These signals do not change Analysis Engine V1 and are not bookmaker odds.
Goals outlook
ActiveV1 expects 2.9 total goals. Local team samples average 3.27 total goals in matches involving these sides.
Over 1.586%
Over 2.552%
BTTS73%
1X2 balance
ActiveThe winner market remains separated from goals markets, so a high goal signal does not automatically mean a strong home or away call.
Home28%
Draw27%
Away45%
Corners outlook
ImportedImported historical sample suggests 9.28 combined team corners per match across the current market dataset.
Sønderjyske Fodbold45%
3.71 avg corners
FC Midtjylland67%
5.57 avg corners
Sample70%
7 matches max
Cards and possession
ImportedImported discipline sample rates this matchup around 5.43 weighted cards. Possession averages are shown when available.
Cards risk100%
Low/High risk labels
Sønderjyske Fodbold41%
Avg possession
FC Midtjylland51%
Avg possession
Risk review
Risk and uncertainty signals
Short caution signals that explain why the analysis remains measured. These do not change the V1 prediction.
Draw tendency sample
25%
Combined draw share across both team samples.
Model draw probability27%
V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.
Confidence caution
Cautious
Low-confidence analysis should avoid strong wording.
Confidence43%
Manual publication remains required.
Historical sample context
128 matches
Current-season form will appear separately after Sportmonks current-season imports are expanded.
Historical team baseline
Longer-term profile from completed local datasets: 2024/2025, 2025/2026. Current-season signals appear separately when Sportmonks match data is available.
Sønderjyske FodboldMetricFC Midtjylland
1.27
Overall PPG1.91
1.42
Goals for2.13
1.77
Goals against1.22
64
Sample64
Sønderjyske Fodbold form
LWLWL
PPG 1.27 · GF 91 · GA 113
FC Midtjylland form
WDDDL
PPG 1.91 · GF 136 · GA 78
Sønderjyske Fodbold win rate34%
FC Midtjylland win rate55%
Draw share sample25%
Home team signal
Sønderjyske Fodbold
LWLWL
Points profile
1.27 PPG
22W 15D 27L sample
Goals for
1.42
91 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.77
113 conceded across local sample
Win share34%
Draw share23%
Loss share42%
Away team signal
FC Midtjylland
WDDDL
Points profile
1.91 PPG
35W 17D 12L sample
Goals for
2.13
136 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.22
78 conceded across local sample
Win share55%
Draw share27%
Loss share19%
Match timeline
Key match events
Goals, cards, VAR and substitutions appear only when verified Sportmonks event data exists locally.
AI MATCH ANALYSIS
Generated from verified statistical data
Detailed AI analysis is being prepared
Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.
Related intelligence
- 1Motherwell vs Dundee United2026-09-02 18:45:00Scottish Premiership
- 2St. Mirren vs Motherwell2026-08-29 14:00:00Scottish Premiership
- 3Kilmarnock vs Dundee United2026-08-29 14:00:00Scottish Premiership
- 4Hearts vs St. Johnstone2026-08-29 14:00:00Scottish Premiership