Football AI Beta · Research Preview · Statistical analyses are continuously improving.
FAFootball AI

Scottish Premiership · 2025/2026

Historical record
Hearts crest

Hearts

Kickoff

2026-05-13 19:00:00

VS

3 - 0

Falkirk crest

Falkirk

Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset

Intelligence overview

Home win

Low confidence, strongest supported indicator: Over 1.5 goals.

Expected goals

1.7 - 0.9

Model estimate

Model

analysis-v1

sportmonks-football-501-25598-v3

Publication

historical

Public view hides drafts

49%

Confidence

Probability board

Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.

Home60%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Draw24%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Away16%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Over 1.581%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

Over 2.545%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

BTTS64%

Model-estimated probability, not odds.

A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.

Evidence engine

Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.

Form

The model favours home win from pre-match team context.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Attack

Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Defence

Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Home/Away

The model favours home win from pre-match team context.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

League context

Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Schedule/rest

Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.

Source context: 2025/2026 / local dataset

Market intelligence

Goals, corners and discipline signals

A separate explanation layer for match markets. These signals do not change Analysis Engine V1 and are not bookmaker odds.

Goals outlook

Active

V1 expects 2.6 total goals. Local team samples average 2.74 total goals in matches involving these sides.

Over 1.581%
Over 2.545%
BTTS64%

1X2 balance

Active

The winner market remains separated from goals markets, so a high goal signal does not automatically mean a strong home or away call.

Home60%
Draw24%
Away16%

Corners outlook

Imported

Imported historical sample suggests 10.83 combined team corners per match across the current market dataset.

Hearts72%

6 avg corners

Falkirk58%

4.83 avg corners

Sample60%

6 matches max

Cards and possession

Imported

Imported discipline sample rates this matchup around 4.67 weighted cards. Possession averages are shown when available.

Cards risk93%

Medium/Medium risk labels

Hearts53%

Avg possession

Falkirk51%

Avg possession

Risk review

Risk and uncertainty signals

Short caution signals that explain why the analysis remains measured. These do not change the V1 prediction.

Draw tendency sample

19%

Combined draw share across both team samples.

Model draw probability24%

V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.

Confidence caution

Standard

Still not a guarantee or betting recommendation.

Confidence49%

Manual publication remains required.

Historical sample context

114 matches

Current-season form will appear separately after Sportmonks current-season imports are expanded.

Historical team baseline

Longer-term profile from completed local datasets: 2024/2025, 2025/2026. Current-season signals appear separately when Sportmonks match data is available.

HeartsMetricFalkirk
1.74
Overall PPG
1.29
1.57
Goals for
1.32
1.07
Goals against
1.63
76
Sample
38

Hearts form

WWDWL

PPG 1.74 · GF 119 · GA 81

Falkirk form

LWLLL

PPG 1.29 · GF 50 · GA 62

Hearts win rate51%
Falkirk win rate37%
Draw share sample19%

Home team signal

Hearts

WWDWL

Points profile

1.74 PPG

39W 15D 22L sample

Goals for

1.57

119 scored across local sample

Goals against

1.07

81 conceded across local sample

Win share51%
Draw share20%
Loss share29%

Away team signal

Falkirk

LWLLL

Points profile

1.29 PPG

14W 7D 17L sample

Goals for

1.32

50 scored across local sample

Goals against

1.63

62 conceded across local sample

Win share37%
Draw share18%
Loss share45%

Match timeline

Key match events

Goals, cards, VAR and substitutions appear only when verified Sportmonks event data exists locally.

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Generated from verified statistical data

Detailed AI analysis is being prepared

Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.

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